The value of lapsed patients is the number of patients in your database, times the share who have not visited in a long while, times the share who would return after a reminder, times your average visit value. It is one-off value, not monthly, and every input except the patient count and visit value is an assumption you should test.
That is the formula behind the clinic check on our home page. Below I show it, work one example with made-up round numbers, and explain how to replace our assumptions with your own data.
What is the formula?
Patients in your database x share not seen in 6 or more months x share who return after reminders x average visit value. The check on our home page words it as: patients x not seen in 6+ months x who return x per visit.
It gives a one-off amount, the value of bringing that group back once. It is not a monthly figure, and it does not include repeat visits afterwards. I kept it narrow on purpose so you can argue with each part.
What are the default assumptions, and where do they come from?
We start with 35% of a database not seen in 6 or more months, and 10% of those returning after reminders. They are starting assumptions. We did not measure them at your clinic or anyone else's, and the page labels the result as an estimate, not a promise of results.
The inputs that are yours to supply are the number of patients in your database and your average visit value in Australian dollars. Take the visit value from your booking system's report for a period you trust. A rough number is fine to start.
What does a worked example look like?
These are made-up round numbers, chosen to show the arithmetic. They are not a benchmark and they are not a claim about any clinic. Suppose a clinic has 1,000 patients in its database and an average visit value of A$300.
- 11,000 patients x 35% not seen in 6 or more months = 350 patients
- 2350 patients x 10% who return after reminders = 35 patients
- 335 patients x A$300 per visit = A$10,500, once
Change any line and the answer moves. If only 5% return, the result halves. If your visit value is A$500, it rises by two thirds. That sensitivity is the point of showing the working: you can see which assumption matters most for your clinic.
How do you replace our assumptions with your own?
Start with the share not seen in 6 or more months. Use your own last-visit report, as described in how to find lapsed patients from your export. That gives you a real number in an afternoon.
The return share is harder, because you only learn it by sending. Message a small group, wait a full cycle, and count who booked. If you hold back part of the list as a comparison, you also learn how many would have come back anyway, which is the honest way to read any return rate.
What does the estimate leave out?
- Repeat visits. A returning patient may come back more than once.
- Other treatments. One visit value hides a mix of services.
- Cost of the effort. Staff time and any tool you pay for.
- Patients who were never going to return. Some are gone for good.
I would not add guesses for these. Each one needs your data. A rough, honest, conservative estimate is more useful than a hopeful one that nobody believes.
How do you compare the result with the cost of a reminder service?
Put the one-off amount next to what the service costs over the period you care about. Conduit's patient return reminders are the Start plan at A$297 a month, plus a one-off setup of A$990, with no minimum term. Over three months that is A$891 plus A$990, or A$1,881 in total.
If your own estimate of the one-off value is well below that, a reminder service may not pay for itself, and doing it by hand from a spreadsheet may be the better choice. If it is well above, the question becomes whether you trust the return share. Remember that the plan also includes a monthly report in dollars and every message checked against Ahpra and TGA rules, which a spreadsheet does not do.
What if the number is small?
Then say so, and do not buy anything on the strength of it. A small estimate can mean a small database, a low visit value, or a clinic that already keeps in touch with patients well. All three are fine outcomes. I would rather a clinic find that out from a spreadsheet than from a contract.
It can also mean the estimate misses something that matters to you, such as patients who spend more over time. In that case, add your own line to the arithmetic and keep the rest of the working visible, so the next person who reads it can check it.
What should you do with the number?
- 1Run the formula with your own last-visit count and visit value.
- 2Try three return shares, a low one, our 10% and a high one, to see the range.
- 3Decide whether to do it by hand or with a service.
- 4If you want to test it, run the clinic check for your site and book a demo to see it on your data.
The pricing page lists what each plan includes. I will not tell you the number is large before I have seen your list.